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FAPRI forecasts falling prices for producers

FAPRI 2023 Marc DSC 4746Marc Rosenbohm, senior research associate with the University of Missouri’s Food & Agricultural Policy Research Institute, discusses the crop outlook during the 2023 Abner Womack Missouri Agriculture Outlook Conference on April 12 in Columbia. He and other presenters shared details on FAPRI’s latest baseline projections report along with timely topics such as conservation programs and policy issues.Unfavorable weather, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, avian influenza and a host of other factors resulted in high commodity prices, high farm production costs and high consumer food price inflation in 2022.

For 2023, an assumed return to more normal conditions results in projected declines in commodity prices, farm income and food price inflation, according to the latest U.S. Agricultural Market Outlook from the Food & Agricultural Policy Research Institute at the University of Missouri.

The outlook summarizes baseline projections for agricultural and biofuel markets using information available in January 2023. Based on forecasts by S&P Global analytics firm, U.S. and world economic growth slows in 2023 and consumer price inflation drops to 2% by 2024. The baseline reflects current policies, meaning it incorporates programs that had been enact­ed prior to January 2023 but does not reflect any subsequent policy changes.

The full report is available online at, but here are some key results:

  • If weather conditions allow crop yields to return to trend-line levels in 2023, prices for corn, soybeans, wheat, cotton and many other crops are likely to fall. Over the next 10 years, average nominal prices are much lower than they have been in 2022-23, but they remain above the average of 2017-18 to 2021-22.
  • Higher fertilizer, fuel and feed costs contributed to a sharp increase in farm production expenses in 2022. A smaller in­crease is projected in 2023, and lower prices for some inputs result in reduced production costs in 2024 and 2025.
  • Cattle, hog, poultry and milk prices all increased in 2022. High feed costs, drought and avian influenza limited supplies, and consumer demand generally continued to be strong.
  • Federal spending on farm-related programs was above the historical norm between 2019 and 2022, largely because of short-term, ad hoc programs. Projected farm-related outlays decline in fiscal years 2023 and 2024.
  • Crop losses in 2022 result in high budgetary costs for the crop insurance program in fiscal year 2023. Crop insurance accounts for 45% of projected spending on major farm-related programs over the next decade.
  • Net farm income reached a record level in 2022, as sharply higher crop and livestock receipts more than offset reduced government payments and increased production expenses. Projected net income declines in 2023 and 2024 as receipts and payments fall.
  • Farm asset values have increased with land prices in recent years, and another increase is projected for 2023. Given assumptions of the outlook, lower farm income and high in­terest rates restrict further increases in farm real estate values in subsequent years.
  • Consumer food price inflation jumped to 9.9% in 2022 as farm commodity prices rose, labor and other costs increased, supply chain problems continued, and consumer demand was strong. Price increases have slowed in recent months, and the projected annual increase in consumer food prices is 4.4% in 2023 and under 2% in 2024.

In a related report, Missouri’s overall net farm income is pre­dicted to fall by a net 14% in 2023 compared to a 19% national decrease, following a record-setting 2022, according to the spring Missouri Farm Income Outlook report from MU’s Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center (RaFF).

One factor that could explain this projected drop in farm income is the state’s livestock receipts, which were impacted by the nationwide drought that reduced cattle inventories and sale of live animals, according to RaFF interim director Scott Brown.

That full report with all its datasets can also be accessed on­line at

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Beef Days return to Bolivar this month

Three extra days of activities and several new events are planned for the second Missouri Beef Days event May 6-13 in Bolivar, Mo. The week-long celebration was created in 2022 to raise awareness of the beef industry and celebrate its importance to the area and Missouri.

Guests this year can expect to see more special speakers, a second night of rodeo, a corn hole tournament, cowboy church, beef cookoff and junior livestock show in addition to the parade, expo, Boots & Bling banquet, Missouri Cattleman of the Year awards, Temple Grandin presentation and a country music concert that were all part of last year’s schedule.

“The first Missouri Beef Days was a great success in attendance, excitement, sponsorships, community support, family fun and more,” said Matt Henenberg, president of the Missouri Beef Days board. “People were wanting more, and we found ways to ‘beef’ it up this year with additional education and even more fun.”

According to USDA, Missouri consistently ranks third in the nation in the number of beef cows with around 2 million head. Polk County, where Bolivar is located, ranks as one of the top three counties in the state in the number of beef cattle as well as one of the top 20 counties in the nation.

Visit for complete information on sponsorships, calendar of events, ticket purchases and more. You can also email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or contact the Bolivar Area Chamber of Commerce at 417- 326-4118.

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MFA welcomes new conservation specialist

EmilyBeckEmily Beck of Cameron, Mo., has joined MFA as the cooperative’s new natural resources conser­vation specialist. She comes to MFA from the USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service in Chillicothe, where she served as soil conservation technician. She replaces Adam Jones, who moved into a new role as an MFA district sales manager.

“Ever since I was little, I had a passion for conserving the land,” Beck said. “I remember collecting monarch and other native caterpillar species, watching them complete their metamorphosis and learning what habi­tats they needed to thrive. I always wanted to travel and provide engaging information about conservation, and with this position I will be able to do a lot of that.”

Beck grew up on a century farm outside Cameron, where her family ran a diversified row-crop and hog operation. She graduated from Northwest Missouri State University in Maryville with a degree in agricultural science and minor in environmental studies.

Initially, Beck worked for the Missouri Department of Natural Resources as an environmental specialist in solid waste. She then took a position as soil technician with the Livingston County Soil and Water Conservation Dis­trict, assisting farmers with funding for resource concerns on their land, before being promoted to her most recent role with NRCS.

She and her husband, Colten, have been married three years and have a 4-year-old German shepherd named Stella and an 11-year-old Bernese mountain dog named Charlie. They have plans to purchase row-crop acreage of their own.

“I am chomping at the bit to be able to bring new ideas and conservation practices to MFA and a larger crowd than I was able to do while working for a single county as a technician,” Beck said. “MFA is partnered with a great wealth of resources and organizations with a vast network of knowledge that I can tap into and bring to the kitchen tables of our MFA constituents.”

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